Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AROW is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$51.50
Method range
$22.31 – $51.50
median $35.16
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $51.50 | +37.47% |
| Exit multiple | $40.33 | +7.66% |
| Analyst target | $30.00 | -19.91% |
| Graham number | $22.31 | -40.45% |
- Forward DCF$51.50
- Exit multiple$40.33
- Analyst target$30.00
- Graham number$22.31
Stock price
$37.46
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.85
3Y FCF CAGR
-11.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$5.21
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
14.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -618.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-11.6%
Your model implies
14.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% |
| 7.4% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.7% |
| 8.4% | 16.1% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 12.8% |
| 9.4% | 18.4% | 17.7% | 17.1% | 16.3% | 15.6% |
| 10.4% | 20.5% | 19.9% | 19.3% | 18.7% | 18.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$62000
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.77
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Arrow Financial (AROW) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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