Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what UPST is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$7.09
Method range
$5.93 – $175.70
median $22.69
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $7.09 | -76.17% |
| Exit multiple | $175.70 | +490.78% |
| Analyst target | $38.29 | +28.75% |
| Graham number | $5.93 | -80.06% |
- Forward DCF$7.09
- Exit multiple$175.70
- Analyst target$38.29
- Graham number$5.93
Stock price
$29.74
EPS (TTM)
$0.41
5Y EPS CAGR
14.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$7.09
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
36.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -319.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
14.4%
Your model implies
36.3%
Analyst consensus for next year implies 471% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 33.2% | 32.7% | 32.2% | 31.7% | 31.2% |
| 14.0% | 35.2% | 34.7% | 34.3% | 33.8% | 33.3% |
| 15.0% | 37.1% | 36.7% | 36.3% | 35.8% | 35.4% |
| 15.0% | 37.1% | 36.7% | 36.3% | 35.8% | 35.4% |
| 15.0% | 37.1% | 36.7% | 36.3% | 35.8% | 35.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.69
Low vs growth
Net debt
$1.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
2.28
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Upstart Holdings (UPST) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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