Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what UPST is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$7.09
Method range
$5.93 – $68.35
median $22.61
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $7.09 | -75.25% |
| Exit multiple | $68.35 | +138.65% |
| Analyst target | $38.13 | +33.14% |
| Graham number | $5.93 | -79.29% |
- Forward DCF$7.09
- Exit multiple$68.35
- Analyst target$38.13
- Graham number$5.93
Stock price
$28.64
EPS (TTM)
$0.41
5Y EPS CAGR
14.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$7.09
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
35.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -304.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
14.4%
Your model implies
35.7%
Next-year analyst consensus
121%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 32.6% | 32.2% | 31.7% | 31.2% | 30.6% |
| 14.0% | 34.6% | 34.2% | 33.7% | 33.2% | 32.7% |
| 15.0% | 36.5% | 36.1% | 35.7% | 35.2% | 34.8% |
| 15.0% | 36.5% | 36.1% | 35.7% | 35.2% | 34.8% |
| 15.0% | 36.5% | 36.1% | 35.7% | 35.2% | 34.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.69
Low vs growth
Net debt
$1.19B
Total debt − cash
Beta
2.27
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Upstart Holdings (UPST) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.