UMB Financial (UMBF) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.16), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, UMBF sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 9, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.16-0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.16 | -0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.34% | +0.24pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.80% | -1.42pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.43 |
| Per-event yield | 0.38% |
| Annualized yield | 1.28% |
| Previously paid | Mar 10, 2026 ($0.43) |
| Last record date | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
UMBF Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for UMB Financial (UMBF). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.43 | -0.88% | $113.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.00% | -2.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -0.45% | $113.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.96% | +4.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.66% | $122.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.81% | -1.19% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -0.26% | $105.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.30% | -6.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -2.07% | $103.07 | 8 | no | yes | -7.93% | -0.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.19% | $123.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.45% | -2.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.09% | $101.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.52% | +3.51% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -1.47% | $80.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +0.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | 0.72% | $83.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.34% | -4.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | 0.08% | $76.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +9.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | 0.08% | $61.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +4.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.57% | $66.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.45% | -4.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -0.37% | $86.17 | >30 | no | no | -40.49% | -23.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.70% | $81.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.59% | -4.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.11% | $89.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.64% | -0.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | -0.60% | $91.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.75% | -9.77% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | 2.15% | $96.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +5.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -1.11% | $105.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.28% | -0.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.33% | $89.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.47% | +1.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -1.05% | $96.17 | >30 | no | no | -7.93% | -0.79% |
- -2.47%
- +4.79%
- -1.19%
- -6.39%
- -0.71%
- -2.43%
- +3.51%
- +0.21%
- -4.67%
- +9.32%
- +4.12%
- -4.59%
- -23.80%
- -4.21%
- -0.03%
- -9.77%
- +5.68%
- -0.57%
- +1.03%
- -0.79%
UMBF Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
UMBF Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with UMBF's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $86.00
- After-tax dividend
- $55.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$22.79
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$33.11
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.15%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~7.3%
UMBF Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical UMBF ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · UMBF (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -0.79% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.47% | |
| -23.80% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.32% | |
| -0.71% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.38% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.